Africa’s private sector showed signs of recovery in June, with five out of eight monitored economies reporting expanded activity as fuel costs eased. However, this progress is now threatened by renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Iran’s announcement to close the Strait of Hormuz has sparked concerns of a fresh oil price shock, which could reverse recent gains, reignite inflation, and dampen consumer spending across the continent, particularly for oil-importing nations. While countries like Uganda, South Africa, Kenya, and Mozambique saw improved conditions in June, economies like Egypt, Zambia, and Ghana remained in contraction. Analysts warn that the second half of the year may be defined by these external economic pressures.