Nigeria’s shift toward local refining is facing a critical supply-side hurdle: insufficient crude oil production to meet domestic demand, export obligations, and loan commitments. While refining capacity has expanded significantly, notably with the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, national output remains insufficient to support all competing claims without recurring friction. Analysts warn that with daily production hovering around 1.56 million barrels, the country lacks the buffer to handle supply shocks. Consequently, the reliance on naira-for-crude arrangements remains fragile, as seen in recent temporary pivots to dollar-based fuel pricing. Future market stability and inflationary pressure will depend heavily on whether upstream production can sustainably reach the 2 million barrel-per-day threshold.