Nigeria’s domestic refining ambitions are facing a critical bottleneck as stagnant crude oil production fails to keep pace with demand. While installed refining capacity, led by the Dangote Refinery, has increased significantly, the nation currently lacks the daily output required to simultaneously supply domestic plants, meet export obligations, and service crude-backed financing deals. Analysts warn that with local production struggling to exceed 1.6 million barrels per day, competition for feedstock will continue to trigger price volatility and currency pressure. Investors are now shifting their focus from refining capacity to the sustainability of crude supply arrangements, as any production shortfall directly impacts pump prices, transport costs, and inflation across the economy. Experts suggest that sustained output near 2.0 million barrels per day is essential to stabilizing the market and insulating the domestic economy from ongoing allocation disputes.