The Nigerian equities market closed lower for the second consecutive week, with the NGX All-Share Index falling 0.97% to 248,363.55 points. Market capitalization dropped by approximately N1.58 trillion to N161.26 trillion. The week was characterized by weak market breadth, as 54 stocks depreciated against 24 gainers.

Sector performance was broadly negative, with the Industrial Goods index being the sole gainer. Livestock Feeds led the gainers with a 47.75% surge, while Critical Minerals Financing Corp was the week’s worst performer, declining 20.27%. Major corporate actions included Guinea Insurance listing new shares from a private placement, the lifting of the trading suspension on Multi-Trex Integrated Foods, and the completion of a share reconstruction by Sterling Financial Holdings. Analysts anticipate continued market caution as persistent selling pressure remains a headwind.

A new report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) identifies Nigeria as having the world’s highest diesel price increase, surging 82.7% between February and August 2026. Petrol prices in the country also rose by 48.1%, ranking as the fourth-highest globally during the same period. While UNCTAD notes that Nigeria could benefit from increased oil export earnings due to higher global crude prices, the report highlights that insufficient domestic refining capacity and ongoing reliance on imports continue to expose the economy to international price volatility. Conversely, the report points to the growing adoption of electric mobility as a potential long-term strategy for African nations to improve energy security.

The Lagos State Government has opened its Series 5 Fixed Rate Bond offer, aiming to raise up to N200 billion to fund critical infrastructure. The 10-year bond, part of a N1 trillion debt programme, offers an indicative coupon range of 16.50% to 16.75%. Proceeds are earmarked for the Blue Line rail extension, hospital construction, and road projects. The offer, which closes on October 16, 2026, features a three-year moratorium on principal repayments and a five-year issuer call option. Investors are advised to weigh the coupon against current FGN bond benchmarks, as the indicative rates currently sit slightly below the latest 10-year sovereign auction yield.

The Nigerian Naira is expected to maintain a stable-to-bullish trend, with a six-month target range between N1,250 and N1,350 per dollar. This outlook is supported by sustained CBN interventions, robust diaspora remittances, and improved crude oil export earnings. Despite the recent 350-basis point cut in the Monetary Policy Rate to 23%, local bond yields remain attractive, offering a real yield of over 3%, which continues to draw both local and foreign portfolio investors. However, analysts caution that the outlook could shift if crude oil prices decline significantly or if seasonal import demand overwhelms current market liquidity.

Fitch Ratings has revised Nigeria’s long-term issuer default rating outlook to Positive from Stable, while affirming the country’s rating at ‘B’. The upgrade in outlook is driven by significantly stronger foreign exchange reserves, ongoing economic reforms, and a downward trend in inflation.

Fitch highlighted that gross foreign exchange reserves reached $54.9 billion by late September 2026, supported by improved oil production and the domestic refining ramp-up. While the agency expects GDP growth to accelerate to 4.3% in 2026, it warned that fiscal pressures and high debt-servicing costs continue to weigh on the sovereign credit profile. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso confirmed the improved external position, noting that net reserves have climbed to $46 billion, bolstering investor confidence.

The Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Emomotimi Agama, has cautioned that Nigeria’s capital market faces a critical shortage of credible issuers. Speaking at the University of Ibadan, he warned that focusing solely on increasing investor participation without expanding the pool of high-quality, transparent institutions will lead to asset price inflation rather than genuine market development. Agama emphasized that sustainable growth requires more organizations capable of meeting rigorous governance and transparency standards to absorb the rising retail investment demand.

The Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Emomotimi Agama, has proposed using Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and other investment vehicles to finance student hostel construction in Nigerian universities. Delivering a lecture at the University of Ibadan, Agama noted that the chronic shortage of on-campus housing represents a significant, demand-backed revenue stream that universities are currently missing. By utilizing REITs, institutions can develop accommodation through private capital and rental income, avoiding the need to borrow against their general revenues or risk their balance sheets. The proposal comes as student housing crises remain a critical issue, with organizations like NANS calling for urgent intervention.

United Capital is facilitating investor participation in the ongoing Dangote Petroleum Refinery initial public offering through its InvestNow digital platform. The N2.15 trillion offer, which offers 4.1 billion shares at N525 per unit, is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026. United Capital is serving as a joint issuing house and official stockbroker, allowing retail investors to subscribe with a minimum of 10 shares for N5,250. This initiative aligns with the firm’s broader strategy to expand digital access to capital markets.

Zenith Bank has reported a profit before tax of N637.6 billion for the half-year ended June 30, 2026, marking a 1.9% increase year-on-year. Despite the rise in pre-tax profit, the bank’s profit after tax dropped 19.1% to N430.8 billion, driven by a significantly higher tax charge.

The results reflect a shift in the bank’s earnings drivers; while impairment charges decreased sharply by 81.5% compared to the same period in 2025, the bank recorded a N284.9 billion loss on currency trading, a reversal from the significant gains enjoyed during the previous year’s currency volatility. Net interest income also saw a 7.4% decline as lending yields compressed. However, fee and commission income provided a positive offset, growing 39.6% to N178.8 billion. Zenith Bank’s board has proposed an interim dividend of N1.50 per share, an improvement on the N1.25 paid during the same period last year.

Nigeria’s net foreign reserves have climbed to a record $46 billion, reflecting a significant boost in the country’s external liquidity. Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Olayemi Cardoso announced that gross foreign reserves have also hit an all-time high of $55 billion. This surge, up from $34.8 billion at the end of 2025, signals strengthened economic stability and improved investor confidence, supported by a more predictable foreign exchange market.

A new World Bank report reveals that Nigerian state government revenues surged by 93% in real terms between 2023 and 2025, driven by FX reforms and the removal of petrol subsidies. Consequently, state capital expenditure rose significantly, with the share of total spending allocated to capital projects climbing from 46% to 61%. While investments in transport, housing, and agriculture grew, the share of expenditure dedicated to education declined. The World Bank urged states to prioritize spending efficiency and transparency to translate these fiscal gains into better public service delivery and improved living standards for citizens.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has upgraded its 2026 global merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9%, up from its previous 1.9% estimate. The revision reflects resilience in global supply chains and a surge in demand for AI-related infrastructure, such as semiconductors and servers, which offset geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East. While Middle Eastern energy exports have declined, alternative production sources have helped stabilize global supply. Looking at regional performance, the WTO expects Africa to see a 5.6% growth in exports and an 8.9% rise in imports. This positive outlook aligns with recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics showing Nigeria’s total merchandise trade reached N41.44 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, with a strong export-led surplus.

The Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) has announced a planned 25-day closure of the runway at Sam Mbakwe International Cargo Airport in Owerri, Imo State. Starting tentatively on October 20, 2026, the shutdown is intended to facilitate critical repairs, resurfacing, and expansion works. According to FAAN, the intervention is necessary to address runway deterioration exacerbated by recent heavy rainfall and to upgrade the facility to accommodate larger, wide-body aircraft ahead of the peak Christmas travel season. Passengers are advised to contact their airlines for flight schedule updates.

Government securities dominated new and supplementary listings on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in the first nine months of 2026, accounting for N11.08 trillion, or 80% of the N13.86 trillion total listing value recorded. According to the NGX Regulation (NGX RegCo) X-Compliance Report, Federal Government instruments, including bonds and Sukuk, made up N10.835 trillion of this total, while Lagos State government bonds contributed N244.815 billion. The remaining N2.78 trillion was attributed to corporate and other non-government transactions. This trend underscores the heavy reliance on domestic capital markets to finance Nigeria’s elevated fiscal deficit, which has seen repeated reopenings of existing bond lines throughout the year.

The African Union has officially launched the Africa Credit Rating Agency (AfCRA) in Mauritius, appointing South African researcher Sifiso Falala as its interim CEO. The agency aims to provide an independent, African-led perspective on credit assessments to address long-standing concerns regarding how international rating agencies price African sovereign risk. AfCRA is currently seeking to raise $15 million in capital, with Plus 94 Research identified as a founding shareholder holding a 33.33% stake. The agency seeks to counter the influence of major global rating firms, though AU leadership has cautioned that it may not immediately lower borrowing costs for African nations.

Zeal Akaraiwe, CEO of FMDQ Group, has called on Nigerian regulators to prioritize the development of deeper foreign exchange hedging markets. Speaking during an investor dialogue in Singapore, Akaraiwe argued that now, while the exchange rate is relatively stable, is the opportune time to introduce more advanced financial products, such as cross-currency swaps and options. Current FMDQ data shows that spot transactions dominate, accounting for over 96% of total FX turnover, underscoring the urgent need to expand derivative products to manage future market risks effectively.

Nigeria is set to adopt Ethiopia’s mechanised farming model to bolster domestic food security and reduce import dependence. Vice President Kashim Shettima announced the move during an official visit to Ethiopia, citing the country’s success in achieving wheat self-sufficiency and generating over $3.1 billion annually from the crop. The Nigerian government plans to integrate similar strategies, including the use of improved seeds, climate-smart practices, and large-scale mechanisation to drive agricultural growth. Furthermore, Nigeria aims to launch a nationwide tree-planting campaign targeting 20 billion trees, inspired by Ethiopia’s Green Legacy Initiative. These initiatives are part of a broader federal strategy to enhance agricultural infrastructure, attract private agribusiness investment, and secure long-term economic independence.

The Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC) has directed stakeholders to ensure the 700-megawatt Zungeru Hydropower Plant operates at full capacity. Currently, the $1.3 billion project, a key Public-Private Partnership (PPP), is generating only 350 megawatts, or half its intended output. The ICRC, led by Director General Jobson Oseodion Ewalefoh, is coordinating with the Federal Ministries of Power and Water Resources, the Bureau of Public Enterprises, and concessionaire Penstock Limited to resolve the legal and operational bottlenecks hindering optimal performance. The commission plans to monitor all PPP-operated power plants nationwide to ensure they meet performance targets and deliver value to the national grid.

Femi Otedola saw the market value of his investment in First HoldCo surge by N1.48 trillion during the third quarter of 2026. His holding value climbed from N451.50 billion in June to N1.93 trillion by the end of September. This growth was driven by a 185.3% appreciation in First HoldCo’s share price and Otedola’s strategic acquisition of additional shares, which increased his ownership stake to approximately 26.5%. The performance in the third quarter significantly boosted Otedola’s net worth, contributing to his reaching a $2 billion valuation.